As in other years, the High Commission for Planning has drawn up the 2022 exploratory economic budget which presents a review of national economic growth in 2021, as well as the outlook for the year 2022.
According to Ahmed Lahlimi Alami’s department, this budget is likely to enable the new government and decision-makers to become aware of the economic development expected in 2022. It will thus constitute a reference framework for the setting of economic objectives. supported by any measures to be implemented, in particular, within the framework of the 2022 Finance Law.
The preparation of this economic budget takes into account, according to the HCP, the provisional aggregates drawn up by the national accounts for the year 2020 and the results of quarterly surveys and the monitoring and economic analysis work carried out by the High Commission. to the Plan during the first half of the year 2021. These forecasts are also underpinned by a set of assumptions relating to the evolution of exogenous factors governing the Moroccan economy, both nationally and internationally underlines the same source.
The forecasts for the year 2022 are based on the assumption of an average cereal production during the agricultural season 2021/2022 and the renewal, during the year 2022, of the budgetary policy implemented in 2021, in terms of policies. public funds for the revival of economic activity explains the HCP in its document sent to Hespress Fr.
Thus, it emerges from the 2022 exploratory economic budget of the HCP, in the part of the evolution of national economic growth that in 2020, the GDP fell by -6.3% against an increase of 5.8% in 2021 and a forecast deceleration of 2.9% in 2022.
Non-agricultural value added was -6.0% in 2020, against an increase of 4.1% in 202 & and a forecast of a deceleration of 3.6% in 2022 raises the HCP. For primary value added, which was -6.9% in 2020, it increased by 4.1% in 2021. The HCP predicts that in 2022 primary value added will experience a decrease of -2.9% .
As for inflation, which was 0.8% in 2020, it increased by 1.5% in 2021 and will experience a deceleration of 0.9% in 2022, foresees the HCP in its exploratory economic budget 2022.
Thus coming to the main ratios (in% of GDP) revealed by the HCP. It shows that the trade deficit fell from -14.6% of GDP in 2020 to experience a widening of -15.9% in 2021, with a forecast of a widening also of -16.8% of GDP in 2022. .
The financing needs were -1.8% of the GDP in 2020 to also see a widening of -2.5% of the GDP in 2021. A widening of -3.4% of the GDP is also expected in 2022 according to some HCP forecasts.
The budget deficit was -7.6% of GDP and saw a reduction of -6.3% of GDP in 2021. HCP forecasts maintain that the budget deficit will also see a reduction of -6.0 % of GDP in 2022.
According to figures revealed by the HCP, the overall debt ratio was 92.5% of GDP in 2020 and experienced a widening of 92.7% in 2021. The department of Lahlimi thus provides in the 2022 exploratory economic budget that the The overall debt ratio should increase by 93.9% of GDP in 2022.
” The overall analysis of the situation in our country in 2020 and the prospects for its development in 2021, beyond the economic data provided by this traditional Exploratory Budget that we present like in other years and which includes in its current version the stigma of the terrible covid-19 pandemic, we are inclined to maintain our favorable prejudice for the next decade and this, despite the singular complexity of the international economic and health context on which it opens »Declared the High Commissioner for Planning, Ahmed Lahlimi Alami.
On the issue of state indebtedness, Lahlimi considered that the latter is ” the lot today of all countries“.
” Ours remains, in our opinion, at still manageable levels. Solutions are possible to reduce the weight on our growth potential or at least to innovate, in this sense, the management method. We would like a debate to be opened on this question, in our opinion, more topical than ever »Underlined the boss of the HCP.