HCP predicts 2.9% GDP growth in 2022

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should register a growth rate of around 2.9% in 2022, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).

“Taking into account an evolution of taxes on products net of subsidies of 4.4%, the GDP should register a growth rate of around 2.9% in 2022 after a recovery of 5.8% expected in 2021 ”, indicates the HCP which has just released its 2022 Exploratory Economic Budget.

In nominal terms, the gross domestic product should register an increase of 3.8%, said the same source, stressing that this development shows a slight increase in inflation, measured by the implicit index of GDP, of 0, 9% instead of 1.5% in 2021.

The national economic outlook for the year 2022 takes into account new trends in the international environment, in particular, the evolution of commodity prices in virtual stabilization and global demand addressed to Morocco which should increase by nearly 6 , 7% in 2022 after 9.3% in 2021, specifies the HCP.

He added that these forecasts also take into account the renewal of the budgetary policy in force in 2021 and an average cereal production during the 2021/2022 agricultural season.

However, continues the HCP, these prospects should remain surrounded by “strong uncertainties” linked mainly to the evolution of the epidemiological situation and to the outcome of the vaccination process at the national and international levels. On the basis of these assumptions, non-agricultural activities should register an increase in added value of nearly 3.6% in 2022 instead of 4.1% in 2021, attributable, in particular to a continued recovery of the tertiary sector under the effect of the recovery in market services, particularly tourism, transport and commerce, due to the planned opening of borders in 2022.

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The Exploratory Budget thus provides for tertiary sector growth of 3.7% in 2022 instead of the 4.1% expected in 2021.

The secondary sector should, for its part, continue to post firming added value, posting growth of 3.4% in 2022, due in particular to the improvement in the construction and mining sectors and the performance of industries. transformation, mainly linked to the expected improvement in external demand.

The primary sector should, under the assumption of an average scenario of cereal production and the consolidation of that of other agricultural crops and livestock, generate added value down 2.9% after a rebound of 17%. , 5% in 2021, estimates the HCP.

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