After a deep recession in 2020, national economic activity should experience a rebound in growth in 2021, says the High Commission for Planning in its report on ” Exploratory economic budget 2022: The economic situation in 2021 and its outlook for 2022“. Indeed, the growth of national economic activity is expected to stand at 5.8% in 2021 instead of a 6.3% recession recorded the past year.
According to Ahmed Lahlimi Alami’s department, this strengthening is due in particular to the promising prospects for the 2020/2021 agricultural season as well as to the resumption, under the base effect, of non-agricultural activities benefiting from a reduction of the negative effects. of the health crisis thus reflecting the beginning of the recovery of the national economy.
After the succession of two years of drought, the 2020/2021 agricultural campaign is taking place under favorable climatic conditions, reports the HCP, noting that the good spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall, should allow the achievement of a cereal production estimated at 98 million quintals, up 206% compared to the previous campaign, and 54.8% compared to the average of the last five years.
These climatic conditions should also strengthen the production of other crops in particular, arboriculture and industrial and market garden crops, continues the HCP, noting that at the same time, the livestock activity should consolidate in 2021, benefiting from the availability of fodder and pastures in the Bour zones, thus allowing the improvement of the production of the animal sectors.
Regarding maritime fishing activities, these should improve, supports the HCP, following the performance of the marketing of coastal and artisanal fishing products, taking advantage of the favorable orientation of external demand.
In its study, the HCP indicates that the primary sector should register a rebound of around 17.5% in 2021 instead of a drop of 6.9% recorded in 2020, thus contributing positively to the growth of the Product. Gross Domestic (GDP) of 2 points instead of a negative contribution of 0.8 point a year earlier.
Under the base effect, the HCP argues that non-agricultural activities should show positive growth of around 4.1% against a drop of 6% recorded in 2020. This recovery would be attributable, according to the same source, to a 4% increase in secondary activities against a decline of 3.8% in 2020 and an improvement of 4.1% in tertiary activities instead of a decline of 7.1% the previous year.
At the secondary sector level, the HCP indicates that the processing industries should benefit from the recovery of the textile and clothing industries and the continued improvement of the agri-food industries and chemical and para-chemical activities, following the continuous strengthening. of external demand.
As for the mechanical, metallurgical and electrical industries, these should post a considerable rebound, according to the HCP, supported by the recovery of the automotive sector, mitigated however by the slowdown in aeronautics activity worldwide.
For its part, the mining sector is expected to continue to perform well, with growth of 4.6% in 2021 predicts the HCP, noting that continued demand from local processing industries should lead to an increase in extraction. rock phosphate, thanks to the strengthening of foreign demand for its derivatives from Brazil, India and the countries of East Africa.
Regarding metal ores, the expected increase in their prices on international markets due to a rebound in Chinese demand, should boost their extraction, says the same source.
The Building and Public Works sector, for its part, should experience an increase of 3.5% in 2021 after a drop of 3.8% recorded in 2020, says the department of Ahmed Lahlimi. This rate of growth should be attributable to the resumption of infrastructure work and to the dynamism that the building sector should experience, stimulated by the public policy implemented in 2020 to encourage demand.
Indeed, the HCP maintains that the measures initiated by the State within the framework of the amending finance law 2020, focused mainly on the improvement and relaxation of financing conditions and tax advantages, should strongly support the demand of households in housing and encourage real estate developers to invest.