According to the latest report on the world economic outlook, the World Bank forecasts a rebound in Morocco’s gross domestic product (GDP) during 2021 and also the following year.
“In Morocco, production is expected to rebound to 4.6% in 2021 under the effect of several factors, namely the reduction in the problems linked to the drought, the maintenance of accommodating policies and the easing of the restrictions imposed on internal movements” , can we read in his report.
These forecast data for Morocco are higher than the average for the MENA region, whose growth is estimated at 2.4% in 2021. The World Bank estimates that this progression in the Middle East North Africa region is more sustained than forecast but remains “below the average of the last decade (2010-2019)”.
For Morocco, the forecasts do not change much between the last forecast report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) dating from last April and this one of the World Bank, even if the forecasts for 2022 are slightly lower on the side of the BM.
Indeed, last April the IMF estimated that Morocco would record economic growth of 4.5% in 2021 and 3.9% for 2022.
Globally, growth should be around + 5.6% in 2021, led by growth in the United States and China, the two world leaders. According to the World Bank, the recovery will be uneven in the world and will mainly impact emerging and developing countries which will suffer the prolonged effects of the coronavirus crisis.
The report indicates as such that “the outlook is uncertain and depends on the evolution of the pandemic, access to vaccines and the will of populations to be vaccinated” for the MENA region.
“The region should benefit from the recent recovery in oil prices, the increase in external demand and the mitigation of economic disruptions due to the pandemic,” said the World Bank, indicating that oil importing countries will suffer more. effects of the epidemiological crisis, as is the case for Egypt where growth is expected to slow to 2.3%.
But, in 2022, things should work out and growth should increase to 3.5%, notably thanks to the acceleration of vaccination, the easing of travel restrictions, the easing of cuts in oil production and the alleviation of budgetary problems.