Morocco: Growth forecast at 14.7% in Q2-2021

The growth of the Moroccan economy should stand at 14.7% for the 2nd quarter of 2021, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).

“Overall, and given a 13.4% increase in value added excluding agriculture and a 15.9% rebound in agriculture, economic activity would register an increase of 14, 7% in the second quarter of 2021, in annual variation, benefiting from a base adjustment effect linked to the 15.1% drop in activity during the confinement period in the second quarter of 2020 ”, indicates the HCP in its recent economic report.

Value added excluding agriculture should therefore increase by 13.4% in the second quarter of 2021, year-on-year. In the tertiary sector, activity should continue to recover in market services, particularly trade, transport and catering.

Overall, the tertiary sector should contribute +5.9 points to the evolution of the GDP, instead of +4.2 points for the secondary sector. Industrial, electricity and construction activities should develop at a relatively faster pace than in the previous quarter.

On the other hand, the growth of mining activity should slow down to + 1.4%, on an annual basis, instead of + 7.9% a year earlier.

The prospects for an upturn in Chinese exports, the increase in fertilizer prices and the increase in selling costs in certain traditional markets are all factors that would dampen the expansion of foreign demand for phosphate fertilizers, leading to a moderation of the local phosphate activity.

On the other hand, the production dynamic of other minerals should continue, in line with the improvement in growth prospects for European industrial activities.

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Growth in agricultural value added should accelerate to 15.9%, instead of a drop of 8.9% a year earlier. This performance, driven by a continued recovery in plant production and a slight acceleration in that of the animal sectors, would be accompanied by a significant decline in agricultural imports, particularly in cereals, after having peaked at more than 3 million tonnes during the year. from the same period of 2020.

In addition, the HCP indicates that global demand addressed to Morocco would continue to improve, posting an increase of 16%, year-on-year, against -13% in the second quarter of 2020. National domestic demand, for its part, should recover significantly compared to the previous year.

An upward reversal would mark the trend in household spending, driven by the expected strengthening in purchases of food and manufactured goods. Restaurant and transport spending should also increase compared to the first quarter, but at a moderate pace.

Spending on non-market services, particularly social, should remain relatively dynamic, while that relating to administrative operations should decelerate, placing the increase in public consumption at 1.3%.

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